[Math] dice odds of a specific number rolling at least once

probability

I'm trying to figure out the odds of rolling a 1 (or any other number) at least once with 3 dice (or any other amount).

I was pretty sure that for any specific outcome, you treat each die roll as an independent event and multiply the probabilities, and I saw some other answers on this site that confirm this. So the odds of getting exactly one 1 would be:

(1) (not 1) (not 1)

(1/6) (5/6) (5/6)

11.57%

And then you add the probabilities of the different outcomes (exactly one 1, two 1s, three 1s), which, using the method above, give me:

11.57%

2.31%

0.46%

But 14.34% is a smaller chance than of rolling a 1 with one die (16.67%). How do my odds of rolling a 1 decrease with more dice? What am I doing wrong?

Best Answer

The easiest way to figure out odd for events with the words "at least" is often to figure out the contrary. So here the contrary is : "you have no 1 on any of your 3 dice" and this probality is easy to figure out. It is : $\left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^3=\frac{125}{216}$

So the probality of your event is : $1-\frac{125}{216}=\frac{91}{216}$