[Math] Counting outcomes for coin tosses

probability

Don't laugh, this is a dumb question, but my brain just doesn't work mathematically. A question in my math class says

A coin is tossed 4 times. Compute the probability of at least 2 tails
occurring.

OK, so I know I figure out how many total events are in the sample, then figure out how many possible ways at least 2 tails are occurring, and divide. My problem is, I can NEVER seem to figure out how many total events there are! I start with HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, and so on, but I always get lost somewhere along the way, miss an event, and never get them all. My book says there are 16 different possibilities. Is there a better way of figuring out how many different events could happen??

Best Answer

For every toss you have two different outcomes, there are four tosses, so you have $2\cdot 2 \cdot 2 \cdot 2 = 2^4 = 16$ different outcomes in total.

You could draw a binary tree to visualize the different roads to an outcome.

binary tree For this problem it might be helpful to consider the not interesting events, here the ones if no tail ($1$ case) and exactly one tail ($4$ cases) is tossed, so there must be $16-5 = 11$ events with at least two tails.

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