[Math] Conditional Probability for dice rolling

probability

This conditional probability question has me confused. A worked solution would be much appreciated to help me understand questions of this form. The question is:

A die is rolled until a 3 or 6 appears, otherwise it is rolled four times. Given that a 3 or 6 did not appear in either of the first two rolls, find the probability for that the die was tossed four times.

I don't understand how the die being rolled four times if a 3 or 6 doesnt appear fits into the solution. I have a few more questions like this I can practice on, but would like to properly understand this one before proceeding.

Best Answer

The dice is rolled until a 3 or 6 appears, or until four throws have been made, whichever comes earlier. (The fourth throw can be 3 or 6.) If we have already rolled the dice twice, here are the possibilities:

  • 3 or 6 gets rolled on the third roll. This has probability 1/3.
  • The third roll doesn't produce a 3 or 6. This means we go to a fourth and final roll, and the probability of that is 2/3.

Since these are probabilities conditional on the dice being rolled twice without a 3 or 6 showing, 2/3 is the answer.