Probability Theory – Conditional Expectation on Trivial Sigma Field Explained

probabilityprobability theorystochastic-processes

Consider for the trvial $\sigma$ – field $\mathcal{F}_0 = \{\emptyset , \Omega\}$,
What is Conditional expectation of the following in the following cases when $A = \emptyset$ and $A = \Omega$ ???

? Can someone please help me fill in the ?? below, as this would help improve my understanding a lot ?

$$\int_? E[X | \mathcal{F}_0]1_A dP = ? \;\; \forall A \in \mathcal{F}_0$$

Question 2: And What if I just condition on the $\sigma$-field,

$$ \int_? E[X | \mathcal{F}] dP = ? $$

For the second question, I guess it is = X right? Since X is already $\mathcal{F}$- measurable by definition of random variable, if given the $\sigma$ – feld $\mathcal{F}$, everything is known, there is no randomness in X.

Best Answer

Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P)$ be a probability space. Suppose $X$ is an integrable random variable and let $\mathcal{G}$ be a sub-sigma-field of $\mathcal{F}$. The conditional expection $E[X\mid\mathcal{G}]$ is the unique random variable that satisfies:

1) $E[X\mid\mathcal{G}]$ is $\mathcal{G}$-measurable.

2) $\int_A E[X\mid\mathcal{G}]\,\mathrm dP = \int_A X\,\mathrm dP$ for all $A\in\mathcal{G}$.

I'm assuming you want to find expressions for $E[X\mid\mathcal{F}]$ and $E[X\mid\{\emptyset,\Omega\}]$. For the first conditional expectation, try showing that $X$ satisfies 1) and 2), and for the last conditional expectation, try with $E[X]$.


One some times sees $E[X\mid\mathcal{G}]$ as our best guess of $X$ given the information contained in $\mathcal{G}$. Try holding this up with the expectations when $\mathcal{G}=\mathcal{F}$ and $\mathcal{G}=\{\emptyset,\Omega\}$.

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