[Math] Conditional expectation (problem)

probability

Type $i$ light bulbs function for a random amount
of time having mean $\mu_i$ and standard deviation
$\sigma_i, i = 1, 2$. A light bulb randomly chosen from a
bin of bulbs is a type $1$ bulb with probability $p$ and
a type $2$ bulb with probability $1 − p$. Let $X$ denote
the lifetime of this bulb. Find $E[X]$.

Just want to check if solution is correct:

Let $Y$ be indicator variable where $Y=1$ represents picking a Type 1 bulb and $Y=0$ represents picking a Type 2 bulb.

$E[X|Y=1]=\mu_1$

$E[X|Y=0] = \mu_2$

$E[X]=E[X|Y=1]P(Y=1) + E[X|Y=0]P(Y=0) = \mu_1p + \mu_2(1-p)$

Best Answer

Apart from two minor points, your solution is correct:

  • You use $T=1$ and $Y=1$ at different times to mean the same thing

  • You use $0$ and $2$ at different times to mean the not-$1$ type

So you perhaps should have written

$E[X|Y=1]=\mu_1$

$E[X|Y=2] = \mu_2$

$E[X]=E[X|Y=1]P(Y=1) + E[X|Y=1]P(Y=1) = \mu_1p + \mu_2(1-p)$

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