[Math] Cheese, mouse and a cat

probabilitystatistics

I have a problem and I don't know how to solve it because I don't know where to start.
If we have the following situation:

Room 1-Room 2-Room 3-Room 4-Room 5

There is a little mouse in room 4 and he always forgets in which room he has been when going to the next room. In room 5 there is a big hungry cat waiting for him and in room 1 there is cheese. What is the chance he will get the cheese and not being eaten by the cat?
My error solution:
If I go like $\displaystyle \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{3} + \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{4} +$ (endless possibilities). I know that this is not the way I should calculate it. This is I think a geometric distribution because it is memoryless. On the other hand I can use binomial distribution to calculate it but there are endless possibilities..

I just need a push in the right direction. Thanks in advance.

Best Answer

HINT: If he started in Room $3$, symmetry shows that his probability of getting the cheese would be $\frac12$. Starting in Room $4$ he either reaches Room $3$ on his first move or falls prey to the cat, each with probability $\frac12$.

Added: Iā€™m assuming that the rooms are arranged in a line, as in the diagram in the question, and that the mouse is equally likely to go to the left and to the right.