[Math] Building intuition of hypothesis testing

hypothesis testingstatistics

I'm studying AS level mathematics ("college") as a mature student and trying to wrap my head around binomial probability and hypothesis testing.

I understand that $X\sim B(n,p)$ describes a binomial probability distribution where $n$ is the total number of trials and $p$ is the success probability.

When using this to test hypothesis with a significance level, I am trying to correctly articulate what we're doing when we evaluate the binomial distribution.

Let's say we're testing whether a coin is biased towards heads. We've tossed the coin 20 times and found head comes up 16 times. We then produce the following two hypothesis for the distribution $X\sim B(20,\frac{1}{2})$:

$$
H_{0} : p=0.5
$$
$$
H_{1} : p>0.5, P(X\geq 16)
$$

Where $H_0$ is our null hypothesis where the coin is not biased, $H_1$ is the alternative hypothesis, the claim that the coin is biased towards heads.

I then evaluate the binomial distribution: $P(X\geq16)=\frac{15}{10000}$.
Which tells me that the "probability of getting 16 or more heads" is very unlikely. Comparing this to the significance level (e.g. 5%) helps me determine that there's enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis because were the coin unbiased/fair getting 16 or more heads is statistically unlikely to occur.

So, my questions:

  1. Is my understanding correct according to my language above?

  2. When we evaluate the binomial probability ($P(X\geq 16)$ above) what are we actually asking? "If less than our significance, the less likely something would happen according to the null hypothesis, thus the bias is more feasible" or what? Can you put it in better words?

Best Answer

That 5% is commonly known as the Critical Region. Any outcome in that region lies so far away from the expectation based on the null hypothesis that one is to conclude that the p-value in the nullhypothesis is set too low. For that reason you reject the null hypothesis.

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