[Math] Birthday problem: using $^nC_r$.

binomial-coefficientsbirthdaycombinatoricsprobabilityprobability theory

In birthday problem say total number of people n < 365, then probability of all person having distinct birthday is given by,

$$\frac{\text{total no. of ways of selecting $n$ numbers from $365$ without repetition}} {\text{total number of ways of selecting n object from 365 with repetition}}. $$

$$p = \frac{^{365}C_n}{^{365-1+n}C_n}$$

I know, that this is wrong, but don't know why.

  1. I want to know why is it wrong?

  2. Can this problem be solved using $^nC_r$ calculations, if not, why?

Best Answer

The number of ways $n$ distinct dates can be selected from $365$ is $\binom{365}{n}$. After you have chosen you can arrange them in $n!$ ways. So total is $n!\times\binom{365}{n}$.

All $n$ people can have birthdays in $365$ possible days so the total ways is $365^n$ hence you get $$\frac{n!\binom{365}{n}}{365^n}$$

The formula you have in the denominator is different from what you intend, it is distributing 365 days among n people. (link) The formula you are using assumes that days and people aren't distinct from one another.

An equivalent number of possible 3 digit binary numbers. In this case the places are all distinct from one another and so are the digits. Hence the formula you use is based on an assumption not relevant to this problem.

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