[Math] Birthday problem- Adam and Eve

birthdayprobability

Question:

Adam and Eve are in a room with $n − 2$ other people. Suppose you know that at least two of the people in the room celebrate their birthday on the same day. What is the probability that Adam and Eve celebrate their birthday on the same day? (Assume that a year has 365 days and that the distribution of births over a year is uniform.)

MyApproach:

I think it is knowing that at least two people have the same birthday that is confusing to me. Does it change anything to have this info?

Best Answer

It certainly changes things. Say $n=5$, then we know at least one of the possible pairs have the same birthday. There are $10$ pairs, and each is equally likely to have the same birthday, so the probability that it is Adam and Eve who have the same birthday is at least $\frac1{10}$, much more than the $\frac1{365}$ it would be without the extra information.

To get the exact value, use $$P(X\mid Y)=\frac{P(X\text{ and }Y)}{P(Y)}.$$ Here $X$ is Adam and Eve having the same birthday, and $Y$ is some two people having the same birthday, so $P(X\text{ and }Y)=P(X)=\frac1{365}$.

Now you just need to find $P(Y)$. It is easier to calculate the probability that no two people have the same birthday, and subtract from $1$. (Hint: what is the probability that the first two have different birthdays? If they do, what is the probability the third person has a different birthday from both of them?)

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