[Math] Birthday Paradox: 4 people What is the probability that two (or more) of them have the same birthday

birthdaypigeonhole-principle

Four people around a room. What is the probability that two (or more) of them have the same birthday?

However, I am not sure if my working out assume finds out about the 2 or more part. I am using the pigeon hole method the most suitable approach for answering this question

Here is my working out

$P(A)$ = 2 or more people having the same birthday

This is difficult to find. However, I can use the Pigeon Hole theory.

$P(A')$ = 2 people having the same birthday

Thus $P(A) = 1 – P(A')$

To calculate P(A')

$P(A') = (1/365)^4 * (365*364*363*362) $

$P(A') = 0.9836440875$

$P(A) = 1 – P(A')$

$P(A) = 1 – 0.9836440875$

$P(A) = 0.0163559125$

Thus it approx 1.635% that 2 or more people will have the same birthdays.

EDIT: For spelling errors and changing the value of P(A)

Best Answer

Your calculations are all correct except the percentage is wrong (your multiplication by $100$ is off). However your complement of the event $A$ should read

$A'=$ "None of the people in the room share the same birthday".

Fix these two small issues and it looks good.