[Math] birth and death processes

stochastic-processes

Suppose we have a system of N balls, each of which can be in one of two
boxes. A ball in box I stays there for a random amount of time with exponential(lambda)
distribution and then moves instantaneously to box II. A ball in box II stays there
for a random amount of time with exponential(lambda) distribution and then moves
instantaneously to box I. All balls act independently of each other. Let Xt be the
number of balls in box I at time t.

  • a) I'm trying to show that X is a birth and death process and specify
    the birth and death rates.

  • b) How can we find the stationary distribution of the process.

For part (a), if we can show it satisfies a Yule process, this is essentially what we're trying to do. And for part (b), I also want some clarification on the detailed balanced equations for this problem.

Best Answer

As the comments mention, this is indeed a continuous time version of the Ehrenfest model and there are papers written considering this problem like

  • Karlin, Samuel, and James McGregor. Ehrenfest urn models. Journal of Applied Probability 2.2 (1965): 352-376.

The model is a birth-death process, births when there are $i$ balls in box I are at rate $(N-i)\lambda$ and deaths at rate $i\lambda$. These formulas cover the special cases too. When box I is empty then there are no deaths, and births happen at rate $N\lambda$, while when box I is full there are no births and deaths occur at rate $N\lambda$.

The balance equations (writing $\pi_i$ for the probability of being in state $i$) are $$ \begin{align} (N\lambda)\pi_0 &= (N\lambda)\pi_1\\ (N\lambda)\pi_1 &= \lambda \pi_0 + (N-1)\lambda \pi_2 \\ (N\lambda)\pi_2 &= 2\lambda \pi_1 + (N-2)\lambda \pi_3 \\ & \vdots\\ (N\lambda)\pi_{N-1} &= (N-1)\lambda \pi_{N-2} + \lambda \pi_N \\ (N\lambda)\pi_N &= N\lambda \pi_{N-1} \\ \end{align}$$

which you then need to solve along with the constraint that $\sum_{i=0}^N \pi_i = 1$ to find the stationary probability distribution.

Related Question