Biased Random Walk – PDF of Time of First Return

probability distributionsprobability theoryrandom walk

I have a random walk process where each step the probability of $+1$ is $p$ and $-1$ is $q$, with $p+q=1$. $p$ may not equal $q$. The walker starts at zero. I want to know the probability that the first return to zero occurs at $t$. Obviously, the number of increases will equal the number of decreases and both will equal $t/2$. So obviously $t$ must be even.

So far, all I have seen is the unbiased random walk PDF for first return time and that when $p>q$ there is a probability that the walker may ever reach zero. It seems like that for any finite $t$, it should simply be a question of getting the right number of permutations. Or perhaps it is as easy as a rewrite of the unbiased PDF?

Additionally, if possible, I'd like to condition on the first step being to $1$.

Thank you!

Best Answer

A standard approach for a probabilist here is to rely on generating functions. That is, fix $|s|<1$ and consider $u_x=\mathrm E_x(s^T)$, where the subscript $x$ means that the random walk starts from $x$ and where $T$ denotes the first return to $0$ of the random walk, that is, $T=\inf\{n\ge1\mid X_n=0\}$ and $(X_n)_n$ denotes the random walk starting from $X_0=x$ and making steps $+1$ with probability $p$ and $-1$ with probability $q=1-p$.

What you are asking amounts to computing $u_0$ and $u_1$, we shall explain how to compute $u_x$ for every integer $x$.

Taking into account the first step of the walk, one sees that $u_0=s(pu_1+qu_{-1})$, $u_1=s(pu_2+q)$ and $u_{-1}=s(p+qu_{-2})$. Furthermore, starting from $x=2$, to reach $0$ one must first hit $1$ and then starting from $1$ one must hit $0$. The times to hit $1$ starting from $2$ and to hit $0$ starting from $1$ to are i.i.d. hence $u_2=u_1^2$. Likewise, $u_{-2}=u_{-1}^2$ (and in fact $u_x=u_1^x$ and $u_{-x}=u_{-1}^x$ for every positive $x$).

This shows that $u_0=s(pu_1+qu_{-1})$ where $u_1=s(pu_1^2+q)$ and $u_{-1}=s(p+qu_{-1}^2)$. Solving this for $u_1$ and $u_{-1}$ yields $u_1=\dfrac{1\pm\sqrt{1-4pqs^2}}{2sp}$ and a similar formula for $u_{-1}$ but since one wants that $u_1$ and $u_{-1}$ stay bounded when $s\to0$, the $\pm$ signs are in fact $-$ signs and $$ u_0=1-\sqrt{1-4pqs^2},\qquad u_1=\frac{u_0}{2sp},\qquad u_{-1}=\frac{u_0}{2sq}. $$ The PDF of $T$ starting from $0$, $1$ and $-1$ is fully encoded in $u_0$, $u_1$ and $u_{-1}$ respectively. For example, the probability to come back at $0$ starting from $0$ and to hit $0$ starting from $1$ and $-1$ respectively, are the limits of $u_0$, $u_1$ and $u_{-1}$ when $s\to1$, that is, $$ \mathrm P_0(T<\infty)=1-\sqrt{1-4pq}=1-|1-2p|, $$ and $$ \mathrm P_1(T<\infty)=\frac1{2p}\mathrm P_0(T<\infty),\quad \mathrm P_{-1}(T<\infty)=\frac1{2q}\mathrm P_0(T<\infty). $$ Let us assume from now on that $p\ge\frac12$ (hence $p\ge q$). Then, $$ \mathrm P_0(T<\infty)=2q,\quad \mathrm P_1(T<\infty)=q/p,\quad\mathrm P_{-1}(T<\infty)=1. $$ Likewise, to get the full PDF only requires to know the expansion along powers of $t$ of the square root involved, namely, $$ \sqrt{1-4t}=1-\sum\limits_{n=1}^{+\infty}c_nt^n,\quad c_n=\frac{(2n)!}{(2n-1)(n!)^2}. $$ One gets for example $$ u_1=\frac1{2ps}\sum\limits_{n=1}^{+\infty}c_n(pq)^ns^{2n}, $$ hence, for every $n\ge1$, $$ \mathrm P_1(T=2n-1)=\frac1{2p}c_n(pq)^n. $$ Likewise, for every $n\ge1$, $$ \mathrm P_{-1}(T=2n-1)=\frac1{2q}c_n(pq)^n,$$ and finally, $$ \mathrm P_0(T=2n)=c_n(pq)^n. $$

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