[Math] Betting: Gambler’s Fallacy vs. Law of Large Numbers

bayesianlaw-of-large-numbersprobability

I know this has been asked before, but I think not in this exact way, so here goes:

Suppose you're going to bet on the flip of a coin. Your bet is always "HEADS", but the amount of your bet may vary, from 1 dollar to 100 dollars. You have deep pockets, so you can bet on thousands of flips.

The first 99 flips were heads. I know that the probability of the coin coming up heads is 0.5, but the probability of the flipper flipping 100 in a row is 1/2^100.

Assuming you can make dozens, or hundreds of bets, shouldn't you be betting more on heads at this point? Considering that head/tails average will approach 0.5 for large n, wouldn't it be reasonable to start betting 2 dollars instead of 1 dollar on heads? You're not assuming heads is "due", but at some point, with a fair coin, the probability of H/T can be expected to average out.

To make this more obvious, suppose the first 99,999 flips have been tails, and the coin is fair. The probability of 100,000 tails is the same as 99,999 tails + 1 heads: 1/2^100000, but if the law of large numbers is correct there must be a time at which it's smarter to bet 2 dollars on heads than 1 dollar on heads. If the wager should be different, is there a way to tell how much larger or smaller the wager should be?

I know that the law of large numbers speaks more to the dilution of a run in the overall account, but it would seem that when you're generating a large data set, that you should start regressing to the mean at some point. I've read a little about Bayesian analysis, and I naively assumed that the conditional probability of heads after a run of 99,999 tails should be higher than 0.5. I'm sure I'm wrong, but I need it explained, I guess.

Best Answer

If the coin is fair then it doesn't matter which side you bet on, the odds are the same. But if you witnessed 99 flips and all were heads you might question your assumption that the coin is fair and act accordingly.

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