[Math] Bayes’ Rules: The probability of at least one event occurring

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There is a 60 percent chance that the event $A$ will occur. If $A$ does not occur, then
there is a 10 percent chance that $B$ will occur.

(a) What is the probability that at least one of the events $A$ or $B$ occurs?

I am given $P(A)=0.6$, $P(A')=0.4$, $P(B\mid A')=0.1$.

If the probability that at least one of the events occurring is the probability of the union of $A$ and $B$:

$$P(A ∪ B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A ∩ B)$$

then I must find $P(B): P(B)=P(B\mid A)P(A)+P(B\mid A')P(A')$.

To do that I have to find $P(B|A)$. I can't assume that $P(B\mid A)=1-P(B\mid A')$ right? So $P(B\mid A)=\frac{P(AB)}{P(A)}=\frac{P(A\mid B)P(B)}{P(A)}$, which means I have to find $P(B)$ which I had to find in the first place. It feels like I am caught in a loop.

Where was my error, and how can I solve this problem?

Best Answer

$$\mathbb P(A\cup B)=\mathbb P(A)+\mathbb P(B\cap A')=\mathbb P(A)+\mathbb P(B\mid A')\mathbb P(A')$$

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