Probability Theory – What is a Real-Valued Random Variable?

category-theorymeasure-theoryprobability theorysoft-question

This question arose when someone (and surely not the least!) commented
that something like $\left(X\mid Y=y\right)$ , i.e. $X$ under condition
$Y=y$, where $X$ and $Y$ are real-valued random variables and $P\left\{ Y=y\right\}>0 $,
is not a well defined random variable. To see
if he is right I need the definition of real-valued random variable.
Is there a commonly accepted one? Constructing an answer for myself
(see below) I come to a definition such that $\left(X\mid Y=y\right)$ is a well
defined real-valued random variable.

In my view a real-valued random variable can be defined as a quadruple
$\left(\Omega,\mathcal{A},P,X\right)$ where $\left(\Omega,\mathcal{A},P\right)$
is a probability space and $X:\Omega\rightarrow\mathbb{R}$ is a measurable
function. Here $\mathbb{R}$ is equipped with the Borel $\sigma$-algebra.
The quadruple is abbreviated by $X$.

Now let $\left(\Omega,\mathcal{A},P,X\right)$
and $\left(\Omega,\mathcal{A},P,Y\right)$ be random variables according to this definition and
for $y\in\mathbb{R}$ such let it be that $P\left\{ Y=y\right\} >0$.
Then $\left(X\mid Y=y\right)$ can be recognized as random variable
$\left(\Omega,\mathcal{A},Q,X\right)$ where $Q\left(A\right):=P\left(A\cap\left\{ Y=y\right\} \right)/P\left\{ Y=y\right\} $
on $\mathcal{A}$.

I also tag categories because my definition is interpreting the real valued random variable somehow as an arrow in a category. An arrow is determining for its domain.

Best Answer

Your conception of "real-valued" is right. The problem with your definition is that $P(Y=y)$ is generally $0$, assuming that the joint distribution is smooth. So your definition rests on dividing by zero.

It may seem easy to fix this by using a limiting definition instead, but as the Borel-Kolmogorov paradox shows, the "obvious" way to do this does not lead to a well-defined probability distribution. Or, more precisely, the probabilities you get that way depend not only on what null set the condition is, but also on how you approximate it.

Related Question