[Math] A box contains 6 green and 11 yellow balls

probability

A box contains $6$ green and $11$ yellow balls. Three are chosen at random. We want to find the probability of the first and the third balls being yellow. Which method of sampling, with replacement or without replacement, gives the higher probability of this event?

My answer
$$P(y g y)={55\cdot 6\over680}=.4852$$

But my teacher gave me $4$ out of $6$ since he wanted me to find the probability with replacement and without replacement. I don't know how can I find the probability with replacement? Is there a formula for sampling with replacement?

Best Answer

With replacement: There are two possibilities. Either a green or yellow ball is drawn second. Hence, the probability that a yellow ball is drawn on both the first and third draws is \begin{align*} P(YGY) + P(YYY) & = \frac{11}{17} \cdot \frac{6}{17} \cdot \frac{11}{17} + \frac{11}{17} \cdot \frac{11}{17} \cdot \frac{11}{17}\\ & = \left(\frac{11}{17}\right)^2\left(\frac{6}{17} + \frac{11}{17}\right)\\ & = \left(\frac{11}{17}\right)^2 \end{align*} which is equal to the probability of selecting a yellow ball twice in two draws with replacement.

Notice that when we are drawing with replacement that there are always $17$ balls in the box, of which $11$ are yellow and $6$ are green.

Without replacement: As above, there are two possibilities. Either a green or yellow ball is drawn second. Hence, the probability that a yellow ball is drawn on both the first and third draws is \begin{align*} P(YGY) + P(YYY) & = \frac{11}{17} \cdot \frac{6}{16} \cdot \frac{10}{15} + \frac{11}{17} \cdot \frac{10}{16} \cdot \frac{9}{15}\\ & = \frac{11 \cdot 10}{17 \cdot 16 \cdot 15}(9 + 6)\\ & = \frac{11 \cdot 10}{17 \cdot 16} \end{align*} which is equal to the probability of drawing a yellow ball twice in two draws without replacement.

Notice that when we are drawing without replacement that the number of balls in the box decreases by one on each selection and that the number of balls of a given color that remain in the box depends on which balls have already been selected.

I will leave it to you to determine whether the probability of selecting a yellow ball on both the first and third draws is higher when the balls are drawn with or without replacement.