[Math] A bag contains 4 white, 7 black and 5 red balls. 4 balls are drawn with replacement. Then Find the following probability.

combinatoricsprobability

Question: A bag contains $4$ white, $7$ black and 5 red balls. $4$ balls are drawn with replacement. Show that the probability of at least two balls are white is $\dfrac{67}{256}$.

I have tried in the following way.

Number of white balls = $4$
Number of black balls = $7$
Number of red balls = $5$
Total balls = $16$

$$\text{P} (\text{at least 2 balls drawn are white})$$
$$= P (2\text{ balls drawn are white}) + P (3 \text{ balls drawn are white}) +P (4 \text{ balls drawn are white})\newcommand{\C}{\text{C}}$$
$$=\frac{^4\C_2\times ^{12}\C_2}{^{16}\C_4}+\frac{^4\C_3\times ^{12}\C_1}{^{16}\C_4}+\frac{^4\C_4\times ^{12}\C_0}{^{16}\C_4}$$

I don't know whether my approach is correct or not.

Best Answer

Note you're sampling with replacement, so each ball drawn can be treated as an independent trial with $(4/16)$ chance of drawing a white ball.

If two are white, any two of the four can be white, so there are ${4\choose 2 } = 6$ possibilities, each of which have probability $(4/16)^2(12/16)^2$ so the probability that two are white is $6*(4/16)^2*(12/16)^2.$

Similarly if three are white, there are $4$ ways and the probability is $$4*(4/16)^3*(12/16)^1.$$

And the probability all four are white is $(4/16)^4.$

The total probability that two or more are white is the sum $$\frac{6*4^2*12^2 + 4*4^3*12 + 4^4}{16^4} = \frac{17152}{16^4} = \frac{67}{256} $$

Your approach of using $12 \choose 2$, etc is better suited to sampling without replacement.