[Math] 3 Dices and the probabilty of me guessing 2-of them and 3-of them back to back.

probabilitystatistics

A weird thing just happened and I tried to solve the problem but I couldn't. My friend had 3 dices, I guessed 2 of them as 2, 4 and he rolled '2,4,5'. So I guessed it correct. Than I guessed 3 of them as '1, 3, 5' and he rolled that. We discussed what are the chances of me guessing the first one correct, and right after that guessing the 2nd one correct back to back, and we are stuck. Any help would be appreciated.

Best Answer

For your first guess you would have been right if your friend had rolled a $1$ with the $2$ and $4$. Because you have three different dice, there are six ways this could have happened: $$1,2,4\quad\hbox{or}\quad 1,4,2\quad\hbox{or}\quad 2,1,4\quad\hbox{or}\quad 4,1,2\quad\hbox{or}\quad 2,4,1\quad\hbox{or}\quad 4,2,1\,.$$ The same thing happens if he had rolled a $3,5$ or $6$. If the rolls were $2,2,4$ it's a bit different and there are only three possibilities: $$2,2,4\quad\hbox{or}\quad 2,4,2\quad\hbox{or}\quad 4,2,2\,.$$ And the same for $2,4,4$. So altogether you would have been right in $30$ cases and the chance of your first guess being right is $30/6^3$. You can figure out the probability of the second guess being right in a similar way - it's actually easier than the first one - and then combine them to get your final answer.