[Math] 2 People Born on February what is the chance that they share the same birthday

probability

I saw some similar questions to this floating around, but I don't think they are quite the same as this one.

If you ask two people what month they were born in, and they respond February, what is the chance that they will have the same birthday? I was talking through this problem with a friend of mine, and we thought the chance was 1/(28.25^2), due to the expected number of days in but we're not completely sure. To make the problem complete, all normal leap year operations are true, ie every 4 years except multiples of 100, but yes to multiples of 4&100 (400).

Best Answer

There are $4*28+1=113$ days in four years of February.
Out of $113^2$ possible $(a,b)$, there are $28*4^2+1^2=449$ ways they can coincide. So the chance is $449/113^2=0.03516...$