[Math] 2 blue and 2 red balls, in a box, no replacing. Expected Value

probability

There are 2 blue and 2 red balls, in a box. You draw all of them out without replacement. You guess the color of the ball on each draw, and you receive a dollar if you are correct. What is the dollar amount you would pay to play this game?

I just want to confirm my solution with someone since the real solution where I got this problem seems incorrect.

Expected Value on first draw: \$1/2, Second: \$2/3, Third: \$1/2(1+1/2), Fourth: \$1. Hence the expected value is: 35/12. Is my reasoning correct?

Best Answer

Your calculations on the third draw are off. Either you have selected two balls of the same color (probability $\frac{1}{3}$) in which case you are certain to win, or you have selected two balls of different color (probability $\frac{2}{3}$) in which case you win half of the time. We have:

First draw: $\frac{2}{4} \cdot 1 = \frac{1}{2}$

Second draw: $\frac{2}{3} \cdot 1 = \frac{2}{3}$

Third draw: $\frac{1}{3} \cdot 1 + \frac{2}{3} \cdot \frac{1}{2} \cdot 1 = \frac{2}{3}$

Fourth draw: $1$

Adding this all up, we arrive at $\frac{17}{6} \approx 2.83$.

Related Question