[Math] 13 cards are drawn at random from a deck of 52 cards . What is the probability that there is at least 1 suit with at least 6 cards

probability

Here's my solution:
We sum over x.
The ways of choosing x(>=6) out of 13 cards(of a suit) and ways of choosing remaining (13-x) cards out of (52-x) cards i.e. Prob= ($\sum$[4 * $13\choose x$* $52-x\choose13-x$]/$52\choose13$. The $\sum$ goes from x=6 to 13.

Best Answer

You are double counting.

How many ways are there to get at least six hearts? That's $6$ up to $13$ hearst and then the rest are non-hearts, i.e., $${13\choose 6}{39\choose 7}+{13\choose 7}{39\choose 6}+{13\choose 8}{39\choose 5}+{13\choose 9}{39\choose 4}+{13\choose 10}{39\choose 3}+{13\choose 11}{39\choose 2}+{13\choose 12}{39\choose 1}+{13\choose 13}{39\choose 0}$$ The same goes for the other three suits. However, this double-counts all possibilities where more than one suit has at least six cards! Fortunately, it is not possible that three suits have six or more carsd among 13, so we only count the ways to have at least six hearts and at least six spades, say: $${13\choose 6}{13\choose 6}{26\choose 1}+{13\choose 6}{13\choose 7}{26\choose 0}+{13\choose 6}{13\choose 7}{26\choose 0} $$ Now to arrive at the correct count for the problem, multiply the result from the first formula by four (for the four suits), multiply the result from the second formula by six (for the six possible pairs of distinct suits) and subtract the latter from the former. Of course, ultimately divide by $52\choose 13$ to arrive at a probability.