[Math] 10 passengers board three buses randomly which was initially empty. The probability that no bus is empty

combinatoricsprobability

Each of 10 passengers board any of the three buses randomly which had no passenger initially. The probability that each bus has got at least one passenger is?

Total number of ways $=3^{10}$

Every bus must have atleast one passenger. Let all 3 buses be filled with one passenger each. This can be done in $\binom{10}{3}3!$.

Remaining passenger have 3 choices. So total number of ways is $\binom{10}{3}3!3^7$

$$\text{Probability}=\frac{\binom{10}{3}3!3^7}{3^{10}}$$
But answer given is $$\frac{3^{10}-3\cdot 2^{10}+3}{3^{10}}$$

Best Answer

As @Andre Nicolas suggested, I used principle of inclusion and exclusion.

Total number of ways $=3^{10}$

But I have also counted the number of ways where one bus remains empty. I need to subtract those cases. Number of ways where one bus remains empty $=\binom{3}{1}2^{10}$, where $\binom{3}{1}$ is for choosing the bus.

But I have subtracted the case where 2 buses are empty twice. I need to add that back. Number of ways where 2 buses are empty $=\binom{3}{2}1^{10}$

$$\text{probability}=\frac{3^{10}-\binom{3}{1}2^{10}+\binom{3}{2}1^{10}}{3^{10}}$$

The mistake I made was pointed out by @Andre Nicolas in a comment to the original post:

Unfortunately your method involves double-counting or worse. The flaw is with the idea of putting certain passengers on "first." You have treated Alicia being "first" on bus X, and Beti also being a passenger, as different from Beti being put first on bus X, and Alicia also being a passenger. A correct method is Inclusion/Exclusion. – André Nicolas

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