Is the sequence of conditional expectations of a convergent sequence of random variables still convergent

convergence-divergencemartingalesrandom variables

Let $(\mathcal{F}_n)_{n \geq 0}$ be a filtration of a probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mathbb{P})$ and let $\mathcal{F}_\infty$ be the $\sigma$-algebra generated by the $\mathcal{F}_n$. If a sequence of random variables $A_n \to A_\infty$ almost surely and in $L_p$, is it true that $\mathbb{E}[A_n | \mathcal{F}_n] \to \mathbb{E}[A_\infty | \mathcal{F}_\infty]$ almost surely and in $L_p$?

I am naturally thinking about martingales, but the convergent sequence of random variables is throwing me.

Best Answer

The conditional expectation operator is a contraction on $L^p$ for each $p \ge 1$, so the hypothesis that $A_n(x) \to 0$ in $L^p$ implies that $E[A_n \mid \mathcal F_n] \to 0$ in $L^p$. However, the answer is different for almost sure convergence.

Consider the unit interval with Lebesgue measure $\mu$. For integers $n \in [2^k,2^{k+1}-1]$, let $\mathcal F_n$ denote the $\sigma$-field generated by the uniform partition of $[0,1]$ to $2^k$ intervals.

Also, for $n \in [2^k,2^{k+1}-1]$, let $I_n$ be an interval of length $2^{-k}/k^2$ contained in the interval $J_n=[n/2^k-1,(n+1)/2^k-1]$, and define $A_n(x)=k^2$ for $x \in I_n$ and $A_n(x)=0$ for $x \notin I_n$.

Then $A_n(x) \to 0$ in $L^p[0,1]$ for every $p \ge 1$, and $A_n(x) \to 0$ a.e. by Borel-Cantelli, since $\sum_{n \ge 1} \mu(I_n)=\sum_{k \ge 1} 1/k^2 <\infty\,.$

However, the conditional expectations $E[A_n \mid \mathcal F_n] ={\bf 1}_{J_n}$ do not tend to zero a.e.