Incremental Brownian Motion

probability theory

For this problem:

Compute the conditional distribution of $B(s)$ given that $B(t_1) = A$ and $B(t_2) = B$,
where $0<t_1 <s<t_2$.

I know the solution is normal with mean $A + \frac{(s-t_1)(B-A)}{t_2-t_1}$ and variance $\frac{(s-t_1)(t_2-s)}{t_2-t_1}$, but I'm not sure I fully follow the steps involved to arrive at this solution. It looks like we make use of the independent increments property; can someone help me understand the steps involved?

Best Answer

This is called a Brownian bridge.

To analyze the distribution of the Brownian bridge at a particular intermediate time, consider the prior probability density to go from $A$ to $x$ to $B$, which is $f_{s-t_1}(x-A) f_{t_2-s}(B-x)$, where $f_t$ is the $N(0,t)$ PDF, i.e. $f_t(z)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi t}} e^{-z^2/2t}$. This uses the independence of the increments.

Then consider the prior probability density to go from $A$ to $B$ overall, which is $f_{t_2-t_1}(B-A)$.

So the conditional PDF is the ratio of these:

$$\frac{\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi(s-t_1)}} e^{-\frac{(x-A)^2}{2(s-t_1)}} \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi(t_2-s)}} e^{-\frac{(x-B)^2}{2(t_2-s)}}}{\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi(t_2-t_1)}} e^{-\frac{(B-A)^2}{2(t_2-t_1)}}}.$$

It's an ugly simplification job to see that this gives a normal with the mean and variance you expect.