If the probability of current flowing in circuit is known, how can I know the probability that a certain bulb will work

independenceprobability

Here the schema is very important:enter image description here

The probability that a bulb will work is 0,5. The probability that the current will flow in circuit is 0,3984375. What is the probability that the bulb C will work.
It is clear from the schema, that in order for current to flow $e$ or $f$ or $(a \lor b) \land c \land d$ must work. So if it is known that current flows it is $1/3$ chance that the $(a \lor b) \land c \land d$ works. But I don't know where to go from here.

Best Answer

In my answer to your previous question, we found that
$$p(w)=\frac{51}{128}$$ where $w$ is the event "the current flows" in the given circuit.

By using the same approach, if $c$ works then $$p((a\lor b)\land c\land d)=\left(1-\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^2\right)\cdot 1\cdot \frac{1}{2}=\frac{3}{8},$$ and therefore $$p(w|c)=\frac{1}{2}\cdot\left(1-\left(1-\frac{3}{8}\right)\cdot \left(1-\frac{1}{2}\right)\cdot \left(1-\frac{1}{2}\right)\right)=\frac{1}{2}\cdot\left(1-\frac{5}{32}\right)=\frac{27}{64}.$$ Hence, it follows that $$p(c|w)=\frac{p(c)\cdot p(w|c)}{p(w)}=\frac{\frac{1}{2}\cdot \frac{27}{64}}{\frac{51}{128}}=\frac{27}{51}\approx0.529$$ which is a bit greater then $p(c)=0.5$.