Hypothesis test, finding p-value

central limit theoremhypothesis testingp-valueprobability-limit-theoremsstatistics

A coin has a probability of getting tails of $\theta$ unknown. We would like to do the following hypothesis test over the value of $\theta$:
$$\begin{cases}H_0 : \theta=0.5 \\ H_1 : \theta > 0.5 \end{cases}$$
Suppose we flipped the coin 5 times and got 4 tails. Calculate the p-value.

Let $X$ be a random variable such that it takes $1$ if we got tails, and $0$ if heads (a Bernoulli distribution with unknown parameter $\theta$) and $X_1, \dots, X_5 $ a simple random sample of $X$.

Then the p-value is going to be $P_{H_0}(T\geq t)$ (assuming $H_0$ is true), with $T=\overline{X}_n$ and $t=\frac{4}{5}=0.8$.

So, $P_{H_0}(T\geq t)=P_{H_0}(\overline{X}_n\geq0.8)=1-P_{H_0}(\overline{X}_n <0.8)$

By the central limit theorem, $\overline{X}_n \sim N\left(0.5,\frac{(0.5)(1-0.5)}{5} \right)=N(0.5, 0.05)$ (approximately).

So, $p-value=1-\phi \left(\frac{0.8-0.5}{0.22} \right)=0.0869$ which is incorrect. Where's my mistake?

The correct answer is

0.187

Best Answer

I think the Central Limit Theorem is a poor approximation here for 5 samples. The exact probability is $P(T \ge t) = P(5T \ge 4) = P(5T = 5) + P(5T = 4) = \frac{1}{2^5} (\binom{5}{0} + \binom{5}{1}) = 0.1875$.

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