How to show that state $0$ is positive recurrent

markov chainsstochastic-processes

I'm having trouble with Lawler problem 2.10:

Consider a branching process with offspring distribution given by $\{p_n\}$. We will make the process into an irreducible Markov chain by asserting that if the population ever dies out, then the next generation will have one new individual [in other words, $p(0,1) = 1$]. For which $\{p_n\}$ will this chain be positive recurrent, null recurrent, transient?

I somehow know that the chain is positive recurrent when $\mu = \sum_k kp_k < 1$, but I'm not sure why.

I know that it would suffice to show that state $0$ is positive recurrent, as the Markov chain is irreducible.

I would greatily appreciate any help.

Best Answer

So here's one approach: let $N_{n}$ denote the size of your population at time $n$ without the additional condition that $p(0,1)=1$ and let $(X_{i,j})_{1\leq{i,j}<\infty}$ be i.i.d. random variables distributed according to your offspring distribution. That is, $\mathbb{P}(X_{1,1}=k)=p_{k}\hspace{2pt}$ for all nonnegative integers $k$. Then:

$$\mathbb{E}N_{n+1}=\mathbb{E}(\sum_{k=1}^{N_n}X_{n+1,k})=\mathbb{E}N_{n}\mathbb{E}X_{n+1,1}=\mu\mathbb{E}(N_{n})$$

The second equality here follows from the fact that all of the $X_{n+1,k}$'s are independent of $N_{n}$. From this recurrence, we deduce that $\mathbb{E}N_{n}=N_{0}\mu^{n}$. Thus,

$$\mathbb{E}N_{n}=N_{0}\mu^{n}=\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}k\mathbb{P}(N_{n}=k)\geq{\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}\mathbb{P}(N_{n}=k)}=1-\mathbb{P}(N_{n}=0)$$

Rearranging, this implies that:

$$\mathbb{P}(N_{n}=0)\geq{1-N_{0}\mu^{n}}$$

Let $\tau_{0}$ denote the hitting time of $0$ by $N_{n}$. Then $\mathbb{P}(N_{n}=0)=\mathbb{P}(\tau_{0}\leq{n})$ since once our population dies, it stays dead. Thus, it follows that:

$$\mathbb{P}(\tau_{0}>n)\leq{N_{0}\mu^{n}}$$

From here, since $\tau_{0}$ is a nonnegative random variable, the layer- cake representation tells us that:

$$\mathbb{E}\tau_{0}=\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}\mathbb{P}(\tau_{0}\geq{k})\leq{1+\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}\mathbb{P}(\tau_{0}>k)}\leq{1+\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}N_{0}\mu^{k}}=1+\frac{N_{0}\mu}{1-\mu}<\infty$$

The summability of this last geometric series is where we made use of the fact that $\mu<1$. Notice now that since your Markov chain behaves the same way as the original branching process up until the point we hit $0$, $\tau_{0}$ is unchanged when we add on the condition that $p(0,1)=1$. In summa, we see that $\mathbb{E}\tau_{0}<\infty$ as desired and so the resulting Markov process is positive recurrent.

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