How do we approach with these kind of probability problems

probability

A step by step thinking approach to these types of problem.

Q: Given Player A,B,C, and D randomly lined up. first two players in the line play games, winner of the game plays with the person third in line, further the winner plays with the fourth in the line. Finding probability that A wins the tournament, given A wins each game it plays with probability p.

Best Answer

If $A$ is number $1$ on the line (probability on that is $\frac14$) then he must win $3$ consecutive games (probability on that $p^3$).

If $A$ is number $2$ on the line (probability on that is $\frac14$) then he must win $3$ consecutive games (probability on that $p^3$).

If $A$ is number $3$ on the line (probability on that is $\frac14$) then he must win $2$ consecutive games (probability on that $p^2$).

If $A$ is number $4$ on the line (probability on that is $\frac14$) then he must win $1$ game (probability on that $p$).

Can you take it from here?

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