Going from 30 to 100 in a coin flip game.

probabilityrandom walk

The question is this:

Say you're playing a coin flip game, where you start with 30 dollars.
If you flip heads, you win 1.
If you get tails, you lose 1.
You keep playing until you either run out of money or reach 100.
What is the probability that you will reach 100. The coin is fair.

I have seen many questions about expected number steps, expected earnings and so on. However I am having trouble with this question because the game need not even end for certain (I think). In such situation, how would we either get a probability, or explain why it can’t be arrived at, if that is the case?

Best Answer

The game may last very long, but the probability that it does not end is zero.

Since the coin is assumed to be fair, the expectation value of the game is zero. Now the expectation value is given by $E = P*70 + (1-P)*-30$, where $P$ is the probability of winning the game. Setting $E$ equal to zero, we can solve for $P$ with the result: $P = 0.3$.