Probability Theory – Analyzing a Game with 4 Coins

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Consider the following game. We have 4 fair coins, they are tossed and you have 2 options, either take the amount of money equal to the number of heads that fell, or toss 4 coins again, after you toss 4 coins again you must take the money and the game ends. Obviously, the optimal strategy is: If on the first throw there are 2, 3 or 4 heads, then we take the money, but if the number of heads is 0 or 1, then we throw the coins again. How to calculate the expected value of this strategy?

I don't understand how to calculate expectations in such games, if anybody could explain on this example, I would appreciate that!

Best Answer

The expected payoff on the first round is the expectation of a Binomial distribution with parameters $(4,\frac 12)$, i.e., it is $2$. The strategy is to toss again only if the initial number of heads is less than $2$.

Let $N_1$ (resp., $N_2$) be a random variable that models the number of heads on the first (resp., second) round. $N_1$ and $N_2$ are independent, and each has distribution $B(4,\frac 12)$.

The total payoff is $N_1 1_{N_1\geq 2} + N_21_{N_1\leq 1}$, and the expected payoff is $$E[N_1 1_{N_1\geq 2}] + E[N_2] P(N_1\leq 1) = \frac {19}8 = 2.375.$$

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