Gambler’s ruin: one player

probabilityprobability theoryrandom walksimulation

The following is an example problem very common in a Computational Statistics course I have. I'm asked to comment the result of the following experiment:

A person has certain amount of money $C$ and participates in the
following game: in each time unit, with probability $p$ wins a unit,
with probability $q$, looses a unit and with probability $r$ remains
equal. We assume that $p+q+r = 1$ and $C \ge 1$. The game continues
until the player's ruin ($C \le 0$) and we are interested in knowing
the time $t$ in which he ruins.

I'm asked to do a simulation of the process but my doubt here is a claim by my professor:

If there is probability to be ruined, then eventually one will ruin.

I googled Gambler's ruin problem instinctively and thought that my situation fits into that framework. The difference is that here I have just a conventional player and I think that the second player could be a player with an infinite number of coins so that he never ruins. In that sense, the Huygens' formulas that Wikipedia offer would confirm the claim of my professor.

So my question is, is my view correct or I should refer to another model for it? Also, the simulation we did was with $p = q$ (fair coin flipping), so, is the claim still valid with unfair flipping?

Related problems:

Here Gambler is saved when reaching some $N$

Here the idea of infinite capital comes in but with certain probability of avoiding ruin.

Best Answer

The Huygens' formulas change the size of the bet as time goes on. This is not the best model for your description.

You should look into Random Walk. Your problem is directly related to a 1-D random walk and it is discussed very well in that article. This is also related to diffusion in physics because given enough time, a small particle will seemingly move in a still environment. In 1827, Robert Brown noticed that pollen 'danced around' and moved about while floating on completely still water. This is modeled with a 2-D random walk and it is called Brownian Motion.

A 1-D random walk algorithm should be quite easy to simulate to get your player to ruin. No matter how small the probability of loosing is, it will eventually 'diffuse' to ruin, it just may take some time.

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