Finding the umvue of variance of exponential distribution

parameter estimationstatistical-inferencestatistics

I'm suppose to find the UMVUE for the variance $\theta^2$ of the exponential distribution $Exp(\theta) \sim f(x,\theta)=\frac{1}{\theta}\exp(-x/\theta)$

The hint is to use $\bar{X}^2$.

In the brief solution, it expressed $E(\bar{X}^2)=\frac{n+1}{n}\theta^2$

Then it stated that after bias correction, by lehmann-scheffe: $\frac{n(\bar{X}^2)}{n+1}=\frac{T^2}{n(n+1)} = $ UMVUE of variance($\theta^2$)

My problem is, I don't follow what bias correction step it applied before Lehmann-Scheffe? What did it use as the initial unbiased estimator to apply L-S Theorem? How did it turn $E(\bar{X}^2)$ to $\bar{X}^2$? How L-S Theorem would be needed to have $\bar{X}^2 = T^2/n^2$

Best Answer

The hint is correct but you can use also this one that, in my humble opinion, looks more suitable (the more basic is the estimator the better it is):

$$T=\left(\Sigma_i X_i\right)^2$$

This because $Y=\Sigma_i X_i$ is complete and sufficient (CSS), thus the goal now is to construct an unbiased estimator based on the CSS.

$$\mathbb{E}[T]=\int_0^{\infty} y^2\frac{1}{\theta^n \Gamma(n)}y^{n-1}e^{y/\theta}dy=$$

$$=\frac{\Gamma(n+2)\theta^2}{\Gamma(n)}\underbrace{\int_0^{\infty} y^2\frac{1}{\theta^{n+2} \Gamma(n+2)}y^{(n+2)-1}e^{y/\theta}dy}_{=1}=(n+1)n\theta^2$$

thus the UMVUE is

$$T_{\text{UMVUE}}=\frac{\left(\Sigma_i X_i\right)^2}{(n+1)n}$$

It is self evident that this estimator matches with the one stated in you textbook

$$\frac{n(\overline{X})^2}{n+1}$$

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