Finding the probability that a test will be unsatisfactory using the Poisson distribution

poisson distributionprobabilityprobability distributions

I have the following question:

An electronic switching device occasionally malfunctions, but the
device is considered satisfactory if it makes, on average, no more
than $0.20$ error per hour. A particular $5$-hour period is chosen for
testing the device. If no more than $1$ error occurs during the time
period, the device will be considered satisfactory.
What is the
probability that a satisfactory device will be considered
unsatisfactory on the basis of the test? Assume a Poisson process.

According to the solution manual, this should be solved using by applying to poison distribution for $P(X>1)$ and $\lambda=1$. However, I think there is something off with this.

My argument would be that solving the problem this way assumes that the device being satisfactory means that the rate of error is exactly $1$ per $5$ hours, however, that is not true. The device is satisfactory is $0\leq\lambda\leq1$ in $5$ hours period. Thus, to solve this one should sum $P(X>1)$ for all $0\leq\lambda\leq1$ which is not possible (based on the probability knowledge I currently have) as there all infinite possible values of $\lambda$

I am posting this as the book on its $9^{th}$ edition so the odds of having a mistake in the solution manual are pretty low so I probably have a logical fallacy in my reasoning but I can't figure out what it is. Any help in better understanding this would be appreciated.

Best Answer

This is a preparatory exercise befor approaching Hypothesis Testing. The fact that they chose $\lambda=1$ instead of $\lambda \leq 1$ is due to the fact that the null hypothesis (the device is satisfactory) plays a main role in the system, say it is always true until you reject is on the basis of your observation's results. Thus in this situation you chose the most suitable value for the parameter to be assigned to $H_0$, the null hypothesis. In other words, the two following systems are equivalent:

$$\begin{cases} H_0: & \lambda\leq1 \\ H_1: & \lambda>1 \end{cases}$$

$$\begin{cases} H_0: & \lambda=1 \\ H_1: & \lambda>1 \end{cases}$$

Related Question