Finding the conditional PDF of the conditional expectation

conditional-expectationmeasure-theoryprobability theory

I will quickly summarize the general definition of conditional expectation. Let $(\Omega, \mathcal{A}, P)$ a measure space, $X: \Omega \to \mathbb{R}$ a random variable and $\mathcal{G}$ a sigma algebra such that $\mathcal{G} \subset \mathcal{A}$. By Radon-Nikodyn theorem, we guarantee the existence of the conditional expectation $E(X|\mathcal{G})$ defined as the unique random variable satisfying the following properties:

  • $E(X|\mathcal{G})$ is $\mathcal{G}$-measurable;
  • $\int_G E(X|\mathcal{G})dP = \int_G X dP$,$\quad\forall G\in \mathcal{G}$.

If $G = \Omega$, we conclude $E[X] = E[ E(X|\mathcal{G})]$. But I would like to discuss in a little detail these expectations, especially when we use their respective densities (pdf) to express the expectation. We know that

$$E[X] = \int x f_X(x) dx$$.

Suposse $X$ and $Y$ two random variables. Considere $\sigma(X)$ and $\sigma(Y)$ the respective $\sigma$-algebra generated by $X$ and $Y$. The notation is well knowk: $E(X | Y) = E(X | \sigma(Y))$. By definition, we know that $E(X | Y)$ is $\sigma(Y)$-measurable. I have two questions:

(1) How can I argument that $E(X | Y)$ is a random variable obtained as a certain function of the $Y$ random variable?

(2) How do I prove that to calculate $E(X | Y = y)$, I have to use the conditional pdf $f_{X|Y}(x|Y = y)$? In other words. $E(X | Y = y) = \int x f_{X|Y}(x|Y = y)dx$?

Best Answer

(1) $$\Lambda(t):=\int_{\{\omega:Y(\omega)\leq t\}}XdP=\int_{\{\omega:Y(\omega)\leq t\}}E(X|Y)dP$$

is absolutely continuous with respect to $P\circ Y^{-1}$ on $(\mathbb{R},\mathscr{B}(\mathbb{R}))$, so we take the derivative as $\lambda(t)$.

Consider $\lambda\circ Y$. $\forall G\in\mathcal{G}$, $$\int_{G}\lambda\circ YdP=\int_{Y(G)}\lambda d(P\circ Y^{-1})=\int_{Y(G)}d\Lambda=\int_GE(X|Y)dP.$$ Since $E(X|Y)$ and $\lambda\circ Y$ are both $\mathcal{G}$-measurable, $\lambda\circ Y\overset{a.s.}{=}E(X|Y).$

(2) $$E_Y(E(X|Y))=\int_{-\infty}^{+\infty}\lambda(y) [P\circ Y^{-1}](dy)=\int_\Omega \lambda\circ YdP=\int_\Omega E(X|Y)dP=\int_\Omega XdP.$$ If you see $E(X|Y)$ as a function of $Y$, and $Y$ has a density function, then

$$\int_{-\infty}^{+\infty}E(X|Y=y)f_Y(y)dy=\int_{-\infty}^{+\infty}\lambda(y)f_Y(y)dy=\int_{-\infty}^{+\infty}\lambda(y) [P\circ Y^{-1}](dy)=E(X).$$

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