Finding a Lower Bound on a Probability Expression

probability theoryrandom variables

Given $a<0<b$ and $X$ is a continuous random variable s.t. $\mathbb{P}(X < a) = 0$ and $\mathbb{E}[X]=0$, what upper and lower bounds can we find for $\mathbb{P}(X<b)$?

I find a lower bound by saying
$$ \mathbb{P}(X<b) + \mathbb{P}(X\ge b) = 1 $$
$$ \implies 1 – \mathbb{P}(X<b) = \mathbb{P}(X\ge b) \le \frac{\mathbb{E}[X]}{b}=0 $$
$$ \implies \mathbb{P}(X<b)=1 $$
using Markov's Inequality in the middle.

Is this correct? Is $1$ the lower and upper bound?

Edit: fixed a mistake in an assumption with Markov's inequality

Best Answer

Your bound is wrong since Markov's inequality assumes that $\mathbb{P}(X<0)=0.$ See the proof in Wikipedia for example. This is also why the $\mathbb{P}(X<a)=0$ never entered the picture.

Apply Markov to $Y=X+a,$ which obeys the assumption $\mathbb{P}(Y<0)=0$. This will give $$ 1-\mathbb{P}(Y<b) \leq \frac{\mathbb{E}(Y)}{b}=\frac{a}{b}, $$ leading to the lower bound $$ 1+ \frac{a}{b} \leq \mathbb{P}(Y<b) , $$ which is in $(0,1)$ since $b<0.$ Rewritten this gives $$ 1+ \frac{a}{b} \leq \mathbb{P}(X<b-a). $$