Find the probability this coin is fair (Conditional probability question)

conditional probabilityprobability

A box contains 4 coins – 3 fair coins and 1 biased coin for which P(heads) = 0.8. A coin is picked at random and tossed 6 times. It shows 5 heads. Find the probability this coin is fair.

Would you tell me how to solve this question step by step?

Best Answer

Firstly, we define the events:

  • $F$: the dice is fair
  • $B$: the dice is biased
  • $5H$: five heads out of six tosses

With those events defined, the event we are looking for is $F | 5H$. We can use the Bayes' rule

$$P(F|5H) = \frac{P(5H|F)\cdot P(F)}{P(5H)}$$

Now we have to find every probability in the RHS:

  • $P(F) = \frac{3}{4}$ (since the coined is originally picked at random)
  • $P(5H|F) = {6\choose 5} (\frac{1}{2})^5 (1 - \frac{1}{2})^1$ (binomial distribution)
  • $P(5H) = P(5H|F)\cdot P(F) + P(5H|B)\cdot P(B)$ (Law of total probability)

Simplifying the last two probabilities gives $P(5H|F) = \frac{6}{64}$ and

$P(5H) = \frac{6}{64} \cdot \frac{3}{4} + (5\cdot\frac{8}{10}^5 \cdot\frac{2}{10}) \cdot \frac{1}{4} $

Plug the numbers in the Bayes' rule and you got the answer.

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