Find the probability that exactly $12$ customers arrive from $9$A.M to $11$ A.M

poisson distributionprobabilitysolution-verification

Customer arrivals at a payment counter in a with an average of nine per hour

Assume that the number of customer arrivals at a counter in each hour behaves independently. Find the probability that exactly $12$ customers arrive from $9$A.M to $11$ A.M

Parameter $\lambda=9$ per hour so there $2$ hours between $9$A.M to $11$ A.M therefore $\lambda=18$

$P(X=12)=\dfrac{e^{-18} 18^{12}}{12!}$

Is that correct?

Best Answer

Yes, that is correct. For a Poisson process with rate $\lambda$ per unit of time, the random number of events per $t$ units of time is a Poisson random variable $X(t)$ with rate $\lambda t$, with probability mass function $$\Pr[X(t) = x] = e^{-\lambda t} \frac{(\lambda t)^x}{x!}, \quad x \in \{0, 1, 2, \ldots\}.$$ In your case, $\lambda = 9$, your units of time is $1$-hour increments, and $t = 2$ hour increments. Thus the probability that there are $12$ arrivals during a $2$-hour increment is $\Pr[X(2) = 12]$, which is what you wrote.