Expected value of time taken on random-walk on a cube

expected valuerandomrandom walk

$A$ and $B$ are opposite vertices of a cube. A spider sits on $A$ and takes steps randomly along any edge connected to the vertex it is on at that moment. This situation ends when the spider makes it to $B$. Compute the expected value of the number of moves the spider makes.

Best Answer

I'm not certain what the standard notation for this is, but here's my proprietary method for expected value questions: Call the expected value for time taken from the starting vertex $v_3$ (this is what we want), the expected value for vertices with Manhattan distance $2$ $v_2$, the expected value for vertices with Manhattan distance $1$ $v_1$, and the expected value for the ending vertex $v_0$. From $v_3$, there is a $\frac{3}{3}=1$ probability of ending up at $v_2$. I write this as $v_3=v_2+1$. From $v_2$, there is a $\frac{2}{3}$ probability of ending up at $v_1$ and a $\frac{1}{3}$ probability of ending up at $v_3$. I write this as $v_2=\frac{2}{3}v_1+\frac{1}{3}v_3+1$. From $v_1$, there is a $\frac{1}{3}$ probability of ending up at $v_0$ and a $\frac{2}{3}$ probability of ending up at $v_2$. I write this as $v_1=\frac{1}{3}v_0+\frac{2}{3}v_2+1$. But the expected time taken from $v_0=0$, so we can leave that out, getting $v_1=\frac{2}{3}v_2+1$. We now have a system of equations and want to solve for $v_3$:

$$v_3=v_2+1$$ $$v_2=\frac{2}{3}v_1+\frac{1}{3}v_3+1$$ $$v_1=\frac{2}{3}v_2+1$$

So $v_2=\frac{2}{3}v_1+\frac{1}{3}(v_2+1)+1$, or $\frac{2}{3}v_2=\frac{2}{3}v_1+\frac{4}{3}$, or $v_2=v_1+2$. But we also know that $v_1=\frac{2}{3}v_2+1$, so $v_2=(\frac{2}{3}v_2+1)+2=\frac{2}{3}v_2+3$, or $\frac{1}{3}v_2=3$, or $v_2=9$. Then $\boxed{v_3=9+1=10}$.

Honestly, this method is probably just a stripped-down version of a more formal way of writing down the same method of solving- I don't remember- but it's always worked for me in the past, and that's actually why I suspect it's equivalent to known methods.