Expected value of dice tossing problem

expected valueprobability

The following is an interview question by Jane Street.

Let's play a game – I give you a $12$ sided die and will pay you whatever the die lands on. If you are unhappy with the roll, you can choose to roll another two 6-sided dice and I will pay you the sum of the two dice. How much are you willing to pay to play this game.

My attempt:

Since the expected value of the sum of two $6$-sided dice is $7,$ we should roll again if we get $\leq 7$ from the $12$-sided dice.
Therefore, the expected value is
$$\frac{21}{36}\times 7 + \frac{5}{36}\times 8 + \frac{4}{36}\times 9 + \frac{3}{36}\times 10 + \frac{2}{36}\times 11 + \frac{1}{36}\times 12 \approx 7.972.$$

However, according to glassdoor, the answer seems to be $8.25.$

I have no idea where I go wrong in my calculations above.

Best Answer

You have a $6/12$ chance of rolling under $7$, and then a $6/12$ to roll the average of $7,8,9,10,11$ and $12$. I.e. the expected result is $$7\frac{6}{12}+\frac{7+8+9+10+11+12}{6}\frac{6}{12}=8.25$$