Expected absolute difference between shuffled range of numbers

expected valuepermutationsprobabilityuniform distribution

Suppose I have a range of numbers $\{1,2,3,4…n\}$

What is the expected value if I shuffle them and then calculate the total absolute differences between neighbours?

For $n = 5$, here is an example.

$\{5,2,3,4,1\}$ –> $(3 + 1 + 1 + 3) = 8$

Initially I thought it would be $\frac{n(n-1)}{2}$, since if I consider the number $1$, its neighbour distances can vary from $1$ to $(n-1)$ (average $n/2$) and there are ($n-1$) total neighbours.

However, this isn't correct, since for the number $3$ neighbours only be a maximum of $2$ away.

I did some simulations and it seems to be closer to $\frac{n^2}{3} $ but I'm not at all sure how I could prove this.

I am interested in the topic because of this paper that defines a correlation metric using neighbours' rank differences to quantify dependencies. I was trying to understand what the expected neighbour's rank differences would be for a random rank ordering.

I see you can do something very messy by counting differences for all permutations, but I think there must be something simple that quantifies the total expected absolute differences a function of n however I don't know how to calculate this.

Best Answer

If $X_k$ is the $k$-th number after the shuffle then you want to compute

$$ \mathbb{E}\left[\sum_{k=1}^{n-1}|X_{k+1}-X_k|\right]=\sum_{k=1}^{n-1} \mathbb{E}[|X_{k+1}-X_k|]=(n-1)\mathbb{E}[|X_2-X_1|] $$ as $\mathbb{E}[|X_{k+1}-X_k|]$ is the same for any $k \in\{1,\ldots,n-1\}$. Finally, observe that

$$ \begin{align*} \mathbb{E}[|X_2-X_1|]&=\sum_{1\leqslant j,k\leqslant n}|j-k|\Pr [X_1=j]\Pr [X_2=k|X_1=j]\\ &=2\sum_{1\leqslant j<k\leqslant n}(k-j)\frac1{n}\cdot \frac1{n-1}\\ &=\frac{2}{n(n-1)}\sum_{k=2}^n\sum_{j=1}^{k-1}(k-j)\\ &=\frac{2}{n(n-1)}\left(\sum_{k=2}^nk(k-1)-\sum_{k=2}^n\frac{k(k-1)}{2}\right)\\ &=\frac{2}{n(n-1)}\cdot \frac{(n+1)n(n-1)}{6}\\ &=\frac{n+1}{3} \end{align*} $$

Therefore

$$ \mathbb{E}\left[\sum_{k=1}^{n-1}|X_{k+1}-X_k|\right]=\frac{(n-1)(n+1)}{3} $$

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