Probability of a Random Side Being Shorter Than the Diameter in a Triangle Formed by Tangents on a Circle

geometric-probabilitygeometryintuitionprobabilitytriangles

Choose three uniformly random points on a circle, and draw tangents to the circle at those points to form a triangle. (The triangle may or may not contain the circle.) For example:

enter image description here

What is the probability, $P$, that a randomly chosen side of the triangle is shorter than the diameter of the circle?

I have found that $P=\frac12$ by using integration, and I will post my answer below. But since the probability is so simple, I am looking for an intuitive explanation.

(Having said that, a probability's simplicity is no guarantee that there is an intuitive explanation; for example here and here are probability questions that have answers of $1/2$ but have resisted intuitive explanations.)

Edit: If two or more of the tangent lines are parallel or coincident, re-choose the three points.

Best Answer

Here is my non-intuitive answer.

Assume the circle is $x^2+y^2=1$, and the points are:
$A\space(\cos(-\alpha), \sin(-\alpha))$ where $0<\alpha<2\pi$
$B\space(\cos \beta, \sin \beta)$ where $0<\beta<2\pi$
$C\space(1,0)$

The tangent at $A$ has equation $y=(\cot\alpha)(x-\cos\alpha)-\sin\alpha$.
The tangent at $B$ has equation $y=-(\cot\beta)(x-\cos\beta)+\sin\beta$.
The tangent at $C$ has equation $x=1$.

Assume the chosen side is the one through $C$. This side has length $|(\cot\alpha)(1-\cos\alpha)-\sin\alpha+(\cot\beta)(1-\cos\beta)-\sin\beta|$, so the probability $P$ is

$$P(|(\cot\alpha)(1-\cos\alpha)-\sin\alpha+(\cot\beta)(1-\cos\beta)-\sin\beta|<2).$$

Let $\alpha=Y-X$ and $\beta=Y+X$. Using basic trigonometric identities, and symmetry, $P$ simplifies to

$$P\left(Y<\arccos\left(\frac{-\cos X+\sqrt{1+\sin^2 X}}{2}\right)\right)$$

where $0<X<\pi$, and $0<Y<\frac{\pi}{2}$.

So we have

$$P=\frac{2}{\pi^2}\int_0^\pi f(X)dX$$

where $f(X)=\arccos\left(\frac{-\cos X+\sqrt{1+\sin^2X}}{2}\right)dX$.

Now let $g(X)=f\left(X+\frac{\pi}{2}\right)-\frac{\pi}{4}$.

$$P=\frac{2}{\pi^2}\left(\int_{-\pi/2}^{\pi/2}g(X)dX+\frac{\pi^2}{4}\right)$$

$\sin (g(X)+g(-X))$ simplifies to $0$, so $-g(-X)=g(X)$, so $g(X)$ is an odd function.

$$\therefore P=\frac12$$