Discarding apples – why is the reasoning wrong

probability

There are two types of apples – red and green. The ratio of red to green is $4:1$. They are mixed together before they are boxed. There is $\frac{1}{50}$ chance that a green apple is discarded, and $\frac{1}{100}$ chance that a red apple is discarded. What is the probability that an apple selected will be discarded?

Attempt: I have

Green apple discarded OR red apple discarded

$\frac{4}{5}\frac{1}{50}$ + $\frac{1}{5}\frac{1}{100}$

Question: Why is this incorrect? It seems I have to multiply by $\frac{2}{3}$ to get the correct answer.

Best Answer

You seem to have confused red and green and your calculation should have been $$\frac{4}{5}\frac{1}{100}+\frac{1}{5}\frac{1}{50}=\frac{3}{250}$$

As a check, suppose you had $1000$ apples

  • You would expect to have $800$ red apples and $200$ green apples

  • You would expect to discard $8$ red apples and $4$ green apples

  • So you would expect to discard $12$ apples, $\frac{12}{1000}=\frac{3}{250}$ of the total

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