Directly Calculating Birthday Paradox Probabilites

birthdaycombinatoricsprobability

I am trying to calculate the probability of at least 2 people sharing a birthday in a group of 4 people. I understand that calculating it as 1-P(no shared birthdays) is simpler, but I would like to understand the counting method by doing it directly.

My attempt for $n=4$ is

P = P(2 people) + P(3 people) + P(4 people) = $\frac{1}{365}\binom{4}{2}+\frac{1}{365^2}\binom{4}{3}+\frac{1}{365^3}\binom{4}{4}=0.0164$

but this does not match up with

P = $1-\frac{364}{365}\frac{363}{365}\frac{362}{365}=0.163…$

What am I doing wrong in the direct calculation?

Best Answer

Your calculation is based on the assumption the events are mutually exclusive. However your calculation of P(2 people) is actually P(2 or more), while P(3 people) is actually P(3 or more). For example P(exactly 3 people) should be $\frac{364}{365^3}\binom{4}{3}$.

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