Difference between “at least one out of two children is a girl” and “a random child out of two is a girl”

probability

I'm struggling with the intuition here. I'm reading the Probability book by Blitzstein, where three situations are contrasted:

  1. There are two children, the eldest is a girl, what is the probability the youngest is also a girl? (1/2)
  2. There are two children, at least one is a girl, what is the probability the other is also a girl? (1/3)
  3. There are two children, you run into a random one on the street, and it's a girl, what is the probability the other is also a girl? (1/2)

Now, I understand the difference between situation 1 and situation 2: situation 1 has sample space {GG, GB, BG, BB}, and by knowing the eldest is a girl, this reduces the conditional universe to {GG, GB}. Situation 2 has the same sample space, but the conditional universe only reduces to {GG, GB, BG}. This all makes sense. However, I don't understand the difference between situation 2 and situation 3. Intuitively, my reasoning is that in both cases at least one child is a girl, and no information is given about whether it's the eldest or the youngest child, so they should have the same probability. Where is my reasoning mistaken?

Best Answer

I'm assuming that since it says "also a girl" in 3, it means you saw the child in the street is a girl. Given that, the other child could be boy or girl. It's the same as in situation 1, you know the exact status of a specific child, and it has no influence on the other child