Correction Continuity from Poisson to Normal Approximation

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Suppose cars arrive at a parking lot at a rate of 50 per hour. Let’s assume that the process is a Poisson random variable with λ = 50. Compute the probability that in the next hour the number of cars that arrive at this parking lot will be between 55 and 61. (Use Normal Approximation)

This is an easy problem but I am a bit confused about the continuity correction. I solved it twice in different ways and got different answers. So can anyone say which is correct?

Here's what I did:

First method

$$P(55\leqq X\leqq 61)=P({55-50\over \sqrt 50} \leqq Z\leqq {61-50\over \sqrt 50})$$

$$\implies P(0.707\leqq Z\leqq 1.556)=P(\leqq 1.556)-P(Z\leqq 0.707)=0.1799$$ (using calculator)

Second method

$$P(55<X<61)=P(X<61)-P(X<55)$$

$$\implies P(X<60.5)-P(X<54.5)=P(Z<{60.5-50\over \sqrt 50})-(P Z< {54.5-50\over \sqrt 50})$$

$$\implies P(Z<1.4849)- (PZ< 0.6364)=0.19348$$

Which one is correct?

Best Answer

First, let's calculate the exact probability using the Poisson distribution. We have $$X \sim \operatorname{Poisson}(\lambda = 50)$$ for the random number of arrivals in one hour. Then $$\Pr[55 \le X \le 61] = \sum_{x = 55}^{61} e^{-\lambda} \frac{\lambda^x}{x!} = e^{-50} \left( \frac{50^{55}}{55!} + \cdots + \frac{50^{61}}{61!} \right) \approx 0.202013175076\ldots.$$

Now, we use the normal approximation with continuity correction. $X$ is approximately normal with mean $\mu = \lambda = 50$ and variance $\sigma^2 = \lambda = 50$. Then $$\Pr[55 \le X \le 61] = \Pr\left[\frac{55 - 50}{\sqrt{50}} \le \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \le \frac{61 - 50}{\sqrt{50}}\right] \approx \Pr\left[\frac{55 - 50 - 0.5}{\sqrt{50}} \le Z \le \frac{61 - 50 + 0.5}{\sqrt{50}}\right],$$ where in the approximation step, we subtract $0.5$ from the numerator of the lower endpoint and add $0.5$ to the numerator of the upper endpoint, because both endpoints are included. This gives $$\Pr[55 \le X \le 61] \approx \Pr[0.636396 \le Z \le 1.62635] \approx 0.210321.$$ This is reasonably close to the exact probability.

Note that neither of your calculations are correct. Your first method fails to employ continuity correction at all. Your second calculation actually corresponds to $\Pr[55 \le X < 61]$, because you have subtracted $0.5$ from the upper endpoint, thereby excluding it.