Conditional probability of two lightbulbs

probability

A box contains four $40$W light bulbs, five $60$W bulbs and six $75$W bulbs.

(a) If two bulbs are randomly selected from the box of light bulbs, and at least one of
them is found to be rated 75W, what is the probability that both of them are 75-W bulbs?

(b) Given that at least one of the two selected is not rated 75-W , what is the probability that both selected bulbs have the same rating?

For(a), my solution is below but that was wrong, can you explain why?

P(both $75$W)= $\frac{(6/15)(5/14)}{1-(9/15)(8/14)}$

For(b), the answer of my solution is:

$\frac{(5/15)(4/14)+(4/15)(3/14)}{1-(6/15)(5/14)}=0.178$, is it true?

Best Answer

I cannot find a flaw in your solution of (a).

Let $X$ denote the number of $75$-W bulbs that are selected.

Then:$$P(X=2\mid X\geq1)=\frac{P(X=2)}{P(X\geq1)}=\frac{P(X=2)}{1-P(X=0)}$$

Here $P(X=2)=\frac6{15}\frac5{14}$ and $P(X=0)=\frac9{15}\frac8{14}$ which agrees with what you wrote as solution.

Also your answer on (b) is correct.

If $Y$ denotes the number of $40$-W bulbs and $Z$ the number of $60$-W bulbs that are selected and $E$ denotes the event that both selected bulbs have the same rating then:$$P(E\mid X\leq1)=\frac{P(E\cap\{X\leq1)\}}{P(X\leq1)}=\frac{P(E\cap\{X=0\})+P(E\cap\{X=1\})}{1-P(X=2)}=$$$$\frac{P(E\cap\{X=0\})+0}{1-P(X=2)}=\frac{P(Y=2)+P(Z=2)}{1-P(X=2)}$$