A die is randomly rolled five times, the probability that outcome of
the fifth throw is one of the outcomes of the first 4 throws is?
Attempt:
For first 4, there are following possibilities: (after that we will multilply the possibilities for the fifth one)
-
All different
-
2 same 2 different
-
3 same 1 different
-
All same
$1.$ All different:
Number of ways: $(6*5*4*3)\times\dbinom 41 = 1440$
$2$. $2$ same, $2$ different:
Number of ways: $\dfrac{4!}{2!}\dbinom 63 \times \dbinom 31 = 720$
$3$. $3$ same, $1$ different:
Number of ways: $\dfrac{4!}{3!}\dbinom 62 \times \dbinom 21 = 120$
$4$. All same:
Number of ways: $\dbinom 61 \times \dbinom 11 = 6$
Thus, $p(E) = \dfrac{@1+@2+@3+@4}{6^5} = \dfrac{381}{6^4}$
But answer given is: $\dfrac{671}{6^4}$
What's my mistake?
Edit:
Forgot to use: (as pointed out by @anryvian in comments)
$5.$ 2 same, 2 same:
Number of ways: $\dfrac{4!}{2!2!} \times \dbinom 6 2 \times 2 = 180$
Which gives the answer as: $\dfrac{411}{6^4}$ (still incorrect 🙁 )
Best Answer
An easier approach: the complementary event is "none of the first four throws is the same as the fifth throw."
I haven't yet found how to fix your attempt (which is a valid approach), but hopefully I (or someone else) catches it soon.
Corrected computations: