Coin toss – probability

probabilityprobability distributions

My Question is –

Each round Mike and Dean toss coin each. Mike tosses a not fair coin in which the probability to get heads is $0.6$. Dean tosses a not fair coin in which the probability to get heads is $0.1$. they toss the coins till they get the same results at the same time.
What is the probability that there will be at most 5 rounds?

I started to calculate it as geometric distribution but something doesn't seem right in my calculations. I thought so since they are throwing till 'success" which defined Geometric probability.

Best Answer

The probability till Mike and Dean get the same results at most 5 rounds:

The final results can be... $${HH}\ or\ {TT}$$ The probability that Mike and Dean get the same results in a round $$={0.6}\times{0.1}+{(1-0.6)}\times{(1-0.1)}=0.42 $$ The probability that Mike and Dean do not get the same results in a round $$={1-0.42}=0.58$$

Let X be the number of rounds until Mike and Dean get the same results. $X\sim Geo(0.42)$

$$P(X\leq5)=P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)+P(X=5)$$ $$P(X\leq5)=0.42+0.58\times0.42+(0.58)^2\times0.42+(0.58)^3\times0.42+(0.58)^4\times0.42\approx0.9344\ (corr.to\ 4\ d.p.)$$

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