Classes and Markov Chains

markov chainsmarkov-processstochastic-processes

The Markov chain $(Xn; n\geq)$ has state-space $S = (0, 1, 2, . . .)$, with

$p_{i,0} = \frac{1}{4}$ and $p_{i,i+1} = \frac{3}{4}$ $\forall i \geq 0$, so that the transition matrix is

P =$\begin{pmatrix} \frac{1}{4} & \frac{3}{4} & 0 & 0 & …\\\ \frac{1}{4} & 0 & \frac{3}{4} & 0 & … \\\ \frac{1}{4} & 0 & 0 & \frac{3}{4} &… \\\ \vdots & \vdots&\vdots&\vdots& \ddots \end{pmatrix}$

Find the irreducible classes of intercommunicating states. For each class, state:

(a) whether it is transient, positive recurrent or null recurrent (hint – think about the distribution of the return times – say to state 0 – in this case. From there, you can work out whether the states have a finite or infinite expected return time. Can you work out what sort of states you have here?)

(b) its periodicity.

I have tried to approach the first part with a state space diagram and have found that only state 0 and 1 intercommunicate and that the rest of the states do not. But, it is possible to return to every state at some point (say we got to 3, we can then go to state 4, then state 0, 1, 2 and end up at 3 again. So would I put $0,1,2,3,4, …$ into one class?

I guess I am also not 100% sure about how to classify the states.

How would I show that this is null recurrent or +ve recurrent? I am not sure how I can show that the expected wait time would be $\infty$?

Best Answer

Suppose $x=0$, then $$\begin{align} \mathbb{P}(X_t=0|X_0 = 0) &= \sum_{i=0}^\infty \mathbb{P}(X_{t-1}=i|X_0 = 0)\mathbb{P}(X_1=0|X_0 = i)\\ &= \dfrac{1}{4}\sum_{i=0}^\infty \mathbb{P}(X_{t-1}=i|X_0 = 0)\\ &= 1/4, \end{align}, $$ so $x=0$ is recurrent since $$\sum_n \mathbb{P}(X_n=0|X_0 = 0) = +\infty. $$

Now, all states communicate, so you can show that all points are recurrent.

For the periodicity, notice that $1\rightarrow 0\rightarrow 1$ is a path from $1$ to $1$ with positive probability of size 2 and $1\rightarrow 0\rightarrow 0\rightarrow 1$ is a path from $1$ to $1$ with positive probability of size 3, so $1$ has period 1 and as this process is irreducible, this chain is aperiodic.

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