Central Limit Theorem in a win, lose or stay the same scenario

central limit theoremprobabilityprobability theory

So, I have this problem:

Robert bets on a casino game where he estimates that he has a 0.45 probability of winning, a 0.5 probability of losing, and a 0.05 probability of being left with no profit or loss.
In each game she bets \$10, which implies that she can win \$10, lose \$10 or stay as he was, with the odds described. If Robert plays this game 100 times independently. What is the approximate probability that he ends up with more money than he started (assuming she has enough money for the first 100 plays)?

My attempt:
Let $X_i$ be the money he gains or losses in each round. And let $Y=X_1+…X_{100}$. Then I have
$$E(X_i)=10(.45)+(-10)(.5)+0(.05)=-.5$$
$$E(X_i^2)=10^2(.45)+(-10)^2(.5)+0^2(.05)=95$$
$$Var(X_i)=E(X_i^2)-E(X_i)^2=95-(-.5)^2=94.75$$
Then
$$E(Y)=100E(X_i)=-50$$
$$Var(Y)=100Var(X_i)=9475$$
Now, if I want to calculate the probability that he ends up with more money than he started I have to calculate $P(Y>1000)$.
My problem is when I apply the CLT because
$P(Y>1000)=1-P(Y\leq1000)=1-P(\frac{Y+50}{\sqrt{9475}}\leq\frac{1000+50}{\sqrt{9475}})=1-\phi(10.78)$ And using a Standard Normal Table that is impossible.
So, any help, suggestion or ideas are welcomed and appreciated.

Best Answer

Remember that each $X_i$ denotes the loss or gain of the person in the $i$-th game. You're denoting each loss by $(-10)$ , each gain by $(+10)$. So, as you have defined $Y = X_1 + X_2 + \cdots + X_{100}$ , the event that he gains some positive amount after $100$ games is $[Y > 0]$ , NOT $[Y > 1000]$.

Now, by CLT, $~Z :=\dfrac{Y + 50}{\sqrt{9475}} \stackrel{\text{approx}}{\sim} \text{N}(0,1)$ . Thus : \begin{align*} \mathbb{P}(Y > 0) &= \mathbb{P}\left(Z > \frac{50}{\sqrt{9475}}\right)\\ &\approx 1 - \Phi\left(\frac{50}{\sqrt{9475}}\right)\\ &\approx 0.3037 \end{align*}


NOTE : In case you want, you may assume that the person is using $\$ 10$ for playing a game, you may denote the total gain and loss by $(+20)$ and $0$ respectively, and keep the value of $X_i$ to be $(+10)$ in case of a draw.

Under that setup, the expectation and variance of $Y$ will change, but the event whose probability you want to drive will be $[Y > 1000]$. However, the final answer will be the same.